Slovenia v England | Preview and Betting

Despondent Wayne Rooney against Algeria on Friday

Where to start? Just when you think that a dismal 1-1 draw against the USA (a country which lists ‘soccer’ as only its sixth most popular sport) would be the lowest point of England’s World Cup campaign, along come the Algerians. In what was arguably the worst England performance in a generation – and certainly the worst under boss Fabio Capello – the Three Lions looked more like new-born kittens as they barely troubled the African goal. A truly dire display, lacking heart, pride and indeed footballing ability culminated in the travelling England fans booing their team from the field – and a bitter response from talisman Wayne Rooney.

England now go into their final group game against table-topping Slovenia needing a win to guarantee progression to the knockout stages, while a draw would leave their fate out of their hands. After reports of divisions and mutiny within the camp, can the team now rally and find the result they need? Read on as we examine the fixture and all the best betting prices to be found on the most important game in recent English footballing history.

First, a look at how the teams might line up at 3pm tomorrow. England coach Capello has confirmed that the suspended Jamie Carragher will be replaced by West Ham’s Matthew Upson – no less than England’s fifth choice centre back behind Terry, Ferdinand, King and Carragher. There is debate as to whether play-maker Joe Cole will start, but after John Terry’s now-infamous press conference (in which he suggested Cole should be picked for his creative benefits), its possible Capello would see starting Cole as bowing to player pressure and losing face. Another point of contention is over Emile Heskey’s place in the starting line-up. However, Heskey has been one of the better performers in an otherwise-poor team in the opening two games, setting up England’s only goal of the tournament to date and putting in effective defensive displays when needed. Surprisingly (or perhaps not, depending on your standpoint), the one player whose place has not really been called in to question is perhaps England’s worst player of the group stage so far – Manchester United striker Wayne Rooney. A lethargic and somewhat petulant performance against Algeria saw Rooney wasteful in possession, lacking control and showing little in the way of desire, commitment or physical presence. It would be a brave manager who leaves out England’s number 10, but could it really make things any worse than they already are?

Slovenia, meanwhile, are without striker Necj Pecnik who suffered a broken ankle against the USA, and center back Marko Suler faces a race to be fit after injuring a rib in the same game.

So what exactly can happen tomorrow? Well, should England find their first win of the tournament, they would be guaranteed a place in the next round. If the USA also win in their game against Algeria, they would also progress with top spot being determined by goal difference and thereafter goals scored. The two are currently on the same goal difference, but the USA have scored 3 to England’s 1. If England win but the USA only manage a draw, England would go through top and Slovenia second. Should England draw (again), they would find themselves on 3 points, behind Slovenia who currently have 4. In that scenario, nothing less than a 2-2 draw would suffice, as well as the USA drawing 0-0. And even then, lots would have to be drawn to determine who goes through in second place. That is because England and the USA would both be on 3 points, both with zero goal difference and both with 3 goals scored. And you though penalty shootouts were scary…

So now to the REALLY important bit – the betting. England are sitting at 4/9 for the win, compared to Slovenia at 7/1. It’s fair to say Capello’s men will be feeling the pressure tomorrow, and if ever they’ve needed a win it will be against the Slovenians. Expect a jittery and perhaps nervy opening, with the priority being not to concede. Although it’s been said before, England should have more than enough for the team ranked 25th in the world (between Switzerland and Israel). They will want to show squad unity after the last few days’ press debacle, and many – if not all – players will be playing to save their reputation on the world stage. Rooney will be desperate for a goal, having never scored in the World Cup in 7 attempts. He is also going through his worst ever baron spell in an England shirt, having failed to find the net in his last 7 internationals – a total of over 10 and a half hours of football. With so much hinging on the next 90 minutes, expect Rooney to finally show the spirit and ability he is famed for, and score at any point at even money.

However, England haven’t looked particularly free-scoring until now, so handicap bets probably aren’t your friend for Wednesday’s game. A marginal 1-0 or 2-0 seems fairly likely, so the 21/10 on England to win and 1 or 2 total goals in the match is quite appealing, as is the 16/1 on the game being 0-0 at half time but finishing 2-0 to England (perhaps once Joe Cole and/or Peter Crouch come on).

Despite a horror in their first two games, and the fact that a draw would leave qualification out of their hands (and reasonably unlikely), England still find themselves 11/10 favourites to top Group C. They are an incredibly-short 4/9 to qualify from the group, but have seen their odds on winning the tournament outright drift from 6/1 pre-tournament to 11/1 now. Perhaps most tellingly, Wayne Rooney is now only second favourite behind Steven Gerrard to finish as England’s top goal scorer in South Africa – perhaps an indication that the bookies feel the team won’t be around long enough for him to overtake the Liverpool man’s solitary goal.

The good news for England fans is that England have made their current predicament somewhat of a habit at the World Cup. In their last 8 World Cups, the team have won their final group game 6 times,with the other 2 ending in a draw. They failed to win either of their first two games back in Italia ’90, but won their final game against Egypt and went on to reach the semi-final. So too in 1986 in Mexico, where a Lineker hat-trick in their final game against Poland was their only win of that stage, yet was sufficient to proceed to the final 16.

So the moral of the story? All is not yet lost. Like it or not, we are a nation whose teams habitually start slowly, leaving fans on the edges of their seats until the last possible moment.  But they do get there in the end – England have qualified from their group in every World Cup they have appeared in since 1958. So please, in the name of all that is good and pure, let’s hope they don’t break the habit of a lifetime against Slovenia tomorrow.

See you soon.

England v Algeria | Preview and Betting

Rob Green gifts the USA their equaliser against England

So England’s World Cup 2010 opener didn’t go exactly to plan. Despite the months of build up, all the hype and the strangely-familiar rhetoric that this could (yet again) be ‘England’s best chance since 1966′, their Group C clash against the USA was about as successful as Clint Dempsey’s rap career (have a look here). It all started so well, with Steven Gerrard putting England ahead within 4 minutes (although you may not have realised if you were watching on ITV HD). But then along came Rob Green. After 11 years as a first team goalkeeper and no fewer than 373 domestic and international appearances, the biggest moment of Green’s life finally came in front of billions of people all around the globe. He had finally made it. The eyes of the world were upon him. He was England’s Number 1, following in the steps of such legends as Peter Shilton and Ray Clemence.

And he fluffed it. In truly epic fashion. Palming a harmless long-range effort into his own net, he broke the hearts of patriotic Englishmen everywhere and ultimately cost his team 2 vital points. Congratulations, Robert Paul Green – you’ve officially made my list. Sleep with one eye open, if your conscience permits you to sleep at all.

But onwards and upwards. On Friday night we turn our attentions to Algeria, a team who have not appeared at the World Cup for 24 years. However, currently ranked 30th in the world by FIFA (ahead of Ghana, the Czech Republic and Denmark) they shouldn’t be taken too lightly in South Africa. They beat African champions Egypt to reach the tournament, and have several reasonably high-level players in their ranks. Portsmouth’s Nadir Belhadj will be familiar, as will Rangers’ centre back Madjid Bougherra. Midfielder Mourad Meghni plies his trade at Lazio, while 2009 German champions Wolfsburg shelled out £6million for left winger Karim Ziani.

The good news for England fans, however, is that the team set to feature against the African side should bear more of a resemblance to the one that managed 9 wins in 10 qualifying games, rather than the team that lined up against the USA. Gareth Barry has regained fitness and should start in front of the back four, allowing both Gerrard and Lampard to play more advanced roles in the side. The attacking partnership is being debated, with rumours that Jermaine Defoe could start alongside talisman Wayne Rooney, but after a decent outing last time round for Emile Heskey – including an assist for Gerrard’s goal – it looks likely that Capello will stick with that formula.

But surely the biggest talking point will centre around who will start between the sticks for England on Friday night. Green is still the favourite, sitting at around 8/13, while David James is better value at 11/8 and Joe Hart is at 8/1. If Capello is to make a change after Green’s howler, he’ll almost certainly go for James’ experience over the unproven Hart, and Capello certainly doesn’t seem like the type to shirk a big decision. However, in spite of my numerous pleading texts and emails, it seems fairly likely that Fabio will stick with his first choice – if only in the hope that Green will vindicate his original decision with a camera-friendly save or two.

After letting the nation down last time out, and with a familiar shape returning to the side, a decent performance and a solid win should be the absolute minimum expected on Friday night. There’s not much value in backing England’s 2/7, or even the 5/6 on England winning with a 1-goal handicap. I’d be very disappointed if the Three Lions concede to the Algerians, so England to win with a clean sheet seems fair at 8/11. They should be looking to appease the fans with a few goals, so I’ve gone for a 3-0 win at 13/2. In fact, you can get almost evens (10/11) on there being either 2 or 3 total goals in the game, which looks like a very good bet.

With Barry keeping the back door closed, Frank Lampard should play in a much more similar role to the one he has mastered at Chelsea, so perhaps look at him to pop up with the first goal at 6/1. In a similar vein, Steven Gerrard should continue the good start he made on Saturday with a typically energetic, hearty performance. He’s a great-priced 11/2 to be named Man of the Match on Friday night.

So here’s hoping England can overcome their jittery start, put the media criticism behind them and turn in a convincing display against Algeria. Without Rob Green.

BellSports’ prediction: A 3-0 England win with Lampard to score first, available at 25/1.

BellSports’ World Cup Bets

Here at BellSports, we live (and occasionally die) by our predictions. After months of build up, the FIFA World Cup 2010 is finally upon us and, as I type, the opening ceremony is unfolding live from Johannesburg’s glorious Soccer City stadium. With less than 2 hours to go until the first game between hosts South Africa and Mexico, BellSports has decided to put its money where its mouth is and divulge the bets we have personally placed on this summer’s iconic sporting event.

The first bet we picked out was on who would win the Golden Boot, which is undoubtedly sought after by most of the world’s top strikers almost as much as the tournament trophy itself. It was a tough call to make, with Luis Fabiano being in rich form of late and Wayne Rooney lighting up the Premier League last season. But with Spain featuring in a group alongside minnows Honduras, Switzerland and Chile, its impossible to look much beyond star man David Villa to get a hat-full. We backed him at 8/1 with Paddy Power.

Our next bet was a forecast on the finalists. We looked at each team’s potential route to the final and decided it’s difficult to see anyone stopping either Spain or Brazil, as they don’t meet each other until the final. With Spain being our favourites to win the competition outright, we’ve gone for them to beat Brazil in the final at a very decent 18/1.

We then looked at who might be Player of the Tournament. If Spain do indeed dominate, we thought it would be likely that one of their midfield maestros would be recognised for pulling their collective strings. With Iniesta and Fabregas both returning from recent injuries, we’ve plumped for Xavi to steal the limelight at 14/1.

And finally, we had to consider how far our beloved England would get in South Africa. If there is any sense left in this universe, we should qualify from Group C with relative ease. A last 16 tie is then likely to be in store against Serbia, who – despite a strong, spirited squad – should fall victim to the Three Lions prowess. If results go as expected, Capello’s men would then face a sub-standard France side in the Quarter Finals. France, who lest we forget, needed some Thierry Henry handiwork to overcome the Irish in qualifying. However, a win at that stage would then see England face Brazil in the Semi Finals. Although England certainly have a good enough team on paper to defeat the South Americans, we think that might be a step too far for a team who may well get nosebleeds upon progressing any further than their traditional quarter final plateau. So we’ve gone for a semi final exit for England. Sorry.

So let us know what you think and who you’ve gone for. And if we’ve got it drastically wrong come July 11th, please be gentle…

World Cup 2010 Preview | Italy

Italy captain Fabio Cannavaro lifts the 2006 World Cup trophy

Betting on football. Something that many players in the Italian squad are no doubt familiar with, given the rife nature of match fixing in the country over the last few years.

Nonetheless, no World Cup preview could consider itself complete without looking at the current holders, who are presently ranked 5th in the world by FIFA. The 2006 champions have won the competition on no less than 4 occasions – bettered only by Brazil – and go to South Africa brimming with confidence after an unbeaten qualifying campaign which saw them coast to 7 wins and 3 draws. But with possibly the least attractive playing style in international football, do they really stand much chance of repeating the miracle of four years ago in Germany? Here, we examine the Italian squad and the odds on how they might perform at this summer’s footballing spectacle.

Nicknamed the Azzurri (after the traditional azure blue of their kits), Italy are once again under the stewardship of coach Marcello Lippi, who stepped down after their 2006 triumph but returned following a poor Italian showing at Euro 2008 under Roberto Donadoni. Lippi has stuck with many of the players involved in their 2006 victory, despite some seeming well past their peaks. Captain Fabio Cannavaro, who turns 37 shortly after the World Cup, was recently released by Juventus and generated so little interest that he signed for Dubai outfit Al-Ahli, and midfield enforcer Gennaro Gattuso, now 32, has managed only 33 appearances in all competitions for Milan in the past 2 seasons. Gianluca Zambrotta and Mauro Camoranesi are both now 33, while goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon – still an exceptional player – has begun to be plagued by injury and missed 2 months of the domestic season with a thigh problem.

Given their impressive record in qualifying, you could be forgiven that all is well within the Italian camp. But when you consider that those games were played against the likes of Georgia, Cyprus and Montenegro, you begin to gain a little perspective. They didn’t even manage a win over the Republic of Ireland in 2 attempts, drawing both times. Last year’s Confederations Cup went even worse, with Lippi’s men losing to Egypt and being thrashed 3-0 by Brazil. They failed even to make it out of their group, losing out to the USA in second spot.

Alberto Gilardino of Fiorentina is arguably the Italians’ biggest goal threat, with an impressive 16 goals from 41 caps. He also managed 4 goals in 6 qualifying appearances, but his price of 5/2 on being Italy’s top scorer in South Africa is a little off-putting. Instead, perhaps consider Antonio Di Natale at 4/1. His international record isn’t quite as good, with 9 goals in 33 outings, but he was Serie A’s top scorer in 2009/10, netting 29 times for strugglers Udinese.

So do the Italians have any chance of repeating their feat of the 1930s, when they managed back-to-back World Cup wins? Well, the bookies have them at a best-priced 16/1 just behind Germany. They should probably make it out of Group F relatively unscathed (which is reflected in their 8/15 on winning the group), but don’t be surprised to see either Paraguay or even Slovakia have a real go at them. Paraguay grabbed wins over both Brazil and Argentina in qualifying, so consider the 4/1 on Italy getting 6 points from their group, dropping 3 to South America’s new kids on the block.

Should they finish top of their Group, they are likely to face either Cameroon or Denmark in the Round of 16. While that should pose little in the way of problems, they would then face the winners of Spain v Portugal in the Quarter Final. If you’ve been keeping up with BellSports’ World Cup build-up, you’ll know from here that we heavily fancy the Spanish to go on to win the tournament, while even a Portugal side missing several injured players could probably do a job on the current Italian side. The bookies have clearly done their homework on this one, shown by the slender 2/1 on Italy going home at the Quarter Final stage. Still, treble-your-money shouldn’t be sniffed at.

All things considered, it really is difficult to recommend any sort of bet in the Italians’ favour. They certainly don’t seem to be in with a shout of winning the tournament outright, and with fixtures as they are it’s hard to see them progressing much beyond their group. A poor showing in South Africa might be just what is needed, to allow the nation as a whole to reflect upon the problems plaguing the sport in that part of the world – terrace violence, match-fixing and poor attendances being just 3 examples.

World Cup 2010 Preview | Spain

The world's best 5-a-side team? Casillas, Ramos, Torres, Xavi and Iniesta

And so to Spain, and every bookie’s favourite to lift the World Cup trophy in Johannesburg on July 11th. And it’s not difficult to see why. The current European champions came through World Cup qualifying with an unprecedented 10 wins out of 10, scoring no fewer than 28 goals in the process and conceding just 5. In fact, their international record is so good, they have only tasted defeat once in their last 48 outings, in a Confederations Cup clash with the USA. Leading up to that game, Spain equalled Brazil’s World Record of going 35 games undefeated, and also set a new record of 15 consecutive wins. Make no mistake, this is no mere football team. This, betting fans, is a winning machine.

With that in mind, the fact that they are 4/1 favourites to win the tournament can come as no surprise, particularly when you consider the talent littered throughout the squad. Choosing the first choice goalkeeper amongst Iker Casillas, Pepe Reina and Victor Valdes is a quandary any England fan would love to find himself in, while their defence includes names from the ranks of both Barcelona and Real Madrid, such as Carles Puyol, Sergio Ramos and Raul Albiol. Their front two pairing of Fernando Torres and David Villa is arguably the best in world football, boasting 60 international goals between them. However, it is in midfield where the Spain squad shines brighter than the midday Andalusian sun. No other country can boast as naturally-gifted a trio as Xavi Hernandez, Andres Iniesta and Cesc Fabregas. And when you factor in players such as £30 million Xabi Alonso and Valencia’s David Silva, it’s easy to see why playing Spain is sometimes referred to as ‘death by a thousand passes’.

But one important thing to remember is that Spain have never done well at the World Cup. Their best performance came way back in 1950, when they finished fourth. Since then, they have never so much as made it past the quarter finals, and last time out they didn’t even get that far – losing to France in the Round of 16. But coach Vicente Del Bosque is hoping to change all that. A hugely successful manager at club level, he has instilled an air of confidence among the squad and has made it clear that this time around, nothing but victory will do.

But before that, Spain must make it out of their group. Now I’d like to write something dramatic, about how football is unpredictable and how anything can happen in the cup, bla bla bla. However, the reality is that your average pub side would probably make it out of Group H. Spain have been drawn alongside Chile, Switzerland and Honduras, whose odds on winning the tournament are around 50/1, 200/1 and 1000/1 respectively. So I’d definitely consider taking up the 7/5 on Spain taking maximum points from their 3 group games. Given that there should be at least 1 or 2 absolute pastings, there’s also a reasonable 9/2 on Group H having more goals than any other.

As already mentioned, Spain are blessed with 2 of the finest strikers on the planet in David Villa and Fernando Torres, and you could do a lot worse than back one of those to go away with the competition’s Golden Boot. However, with Torres only just returning from knee surgery and having failed to score throughout Spain’s qualifying campaign, it is surely the recently-transferred Barcelona man who goes to South Africa as the bigger goal threat. Not only was Villa top scorer at Euro 2008 with 4 goals, but he bagged 7 goals in 7 qualifying games and a recent matrix (using a weighted system based on goal importance and tournament standard) declared him to be the world’s most prolific goalscorer over the last 5 years. It really is difficult to see beyond him for the World Cup’s Top Goalscorer, and 8/1 would provide a fairly decent return. And although the price isn’t fantastic, with the teams in their group in mind, I’d be tempted to lay my house on Spain to score over 10.5 goals in the entire tournament at 5/6.

The fact of the matter is, the current Spain team is an incredible collective of footballing talent. They quite rightly find themselves as most people’s pick to be the winners in the 2010 FIFA World Cup, and you’ll certainly find no arguments here. Weighing up their closest competition in Brazil, its fair to say that Spain seem to have a more well-rounded squad with world-class talent from numbers 1 to 11, while it could be argued that the South American’s are lacking in a few key areas. I personally expect Spain to dominate this year’s footballing spectacle, and wouldn’t be surprised to see a tournament win/top goalscorer double involving David Villa, which can be found at 16/1. They could well bag a treble, with midfield maestro Xavi being named Player of the Tournament at 14/1. He managed it during Euro 2008, and if Spain do indeed go on to lift the trophy in Johannesburg, expect him to be at the heart of everything good they do.

Thanks for reading, and be sure to bookmark BellSports as the year’s biggest betting event edges ever closer.

Until next time.